Dangote Refinery vs. NMDPRA: The Numbers Behind the Supply Gap
Data from the NMDPRA’s latest “Fact Sheet” reveals that the $20 billion Dangote Refinery did not meet its self-imposed domestic supply goal in December 2025, despite reaching record-breaking production levels.
The Stats: Growth vs. Targets
- The Target: The refinery had planned to supply 50 million liters of petrol (PMS) per day to the local market.
- The Reality: In December 2025, it supplied an average of 32.01 million liters per day.
- The Gap: A shortfall of 17.9 million liters per day compared to the initial plan.
- The Growth: Despite missing the target, the refinery recorded a massive 64.4% increase in supply month-on-month, rising from 19.47 million liters in November.
Why the Shortfall Matters
Because the local supply hit 32 million liters while Nigeria’s total consumption spiked to 63.7 million liters per day (due to festive season demand), the country still relied on imports for about 42.2 million liters daily to bridge the gap.
The “New Management” Effect
Interestingly, the refinery’s leadership, including new MD David Bird, claims that as of mid-January 2026, the facility has finally hit and even exceeded that 50 million-liter mark. They attribute the recent smoother operations to a change in the regulatory leadership at NMDPRA and better alignment with marketers.
