LAGOS, Nigeria — The Naira closed the week on a bearish note at the official Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) celebrated a multi-year high in foreign reserves.
The FX Numbers: A Weekly Review
The currency’s performance on Friday marked the sharpest daily decline seen since the start of the new year.
| Market Segment | Friday (Jan 9) | Thursday (Jan 8) | Change |
| Official (NAFEM) | N1,423.17 | N1,419.72 | -N3.45 |
| Black Market | N1,490.00 | N1,490.00 | 0.00 |
| External Reserves | $45.67 Billion | $45.62 Billion | +$50m |
Analysis: Why is the Naira dipping as Reserves Rise?
The “paradox” of a falling currency alongside rising reserves has sparked debate among financial analysts. Key drivers for this week’s movement include:
- Increased Demand: The first full week of January typically sees a surge in FX demand from manufacturers and importers restocking for the 2026 fiscal year.
- Market Liquidity: While reserves are up, the CBN appears to be prioritizing reserve accumulation over direct intervention, allowing the market to find its “true price” through the ongoing willing-buyer-willing-seller model.
- The $51bn Target: In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, the CBN projected that reserves would hit $51.04 billion by year-end. This strategy involves “saving” more inflows from oil and diaspora remittances rather than flooding the market to defend a specific rate.
Presidential Confidence
The market fluctuations come just a day after President Bola Tinubu assured the nation that 2026 would be an “epochal year” for prosperity. He noted that the surplus in the nation’s current account—projected to hit $18.81 billion this year—is a better indicator of long-term health than daily currency ticks.
